KOMPOSISI PERBELANJAAN KERAJAAN DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: KAJIAN EMPIRIKAL DI MALAYSIA
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Government expenditure is one of the main variables in the fiscal budgeting and national income accounting identity. Therefore, this study assesses the trend of short- and long-term relationships between the central government expenditure composition (which is the government size) and the economic growth. This means that, this analysis has also taken into account the expenditure component change’s existence of the non-symmetric business cycle. Based on the vector auto-regressive (VAR) application, the overall finding proving the Keynesian theory existed in the long term in Malaysia, which means dominant national income influenced by the total government expenditure. However, this study found many public expenditure component influenced by the national income, immediately this reflect exist the Wagner’s Law in short-term period.Â
ABSTRAK
Perbelanjaan kerajaan merupakan salah satu pemboleh ubah yang penting dalam identiti belanjawan fiskal dan perakaunan pendapatan negara. Justeru, kajian ini menaksir arah hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara komposisi perbelanjaan kerajaan pusat (yang merupakan saiz kerajaan) dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ini bererti analisis turut mengambil kira kewujudan perubahan komponen perbelanjaan tidak simetri mengikut kitaran perniagaan. Menerusi aplikasi model Vector Autoregressif (VAR), dapatan keseluruhan membuktikan teori Keynes wujud dalam jangka panjang di Malaysia, yang bererti pendapatan negara dominan dipengaruhi oleh jumlah perbelanjaan kerajaan. Namun, didapati banyak komponen perbelanjaan awam dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan negara, lantas ini mencerminkan wujud hukum Wagner dalam jangka pendek.
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